2019 Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil, All Rights Reserved. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Were all winners in life without doing anything! We're about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. If the first shot fall into the black hole, it remains only the red, and not green or blue. Lets not get carried away here; well just deal with the human lineage. The chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is 1 in 2. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. Dr. Binazir puts it this way: "It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. Happiness Engineering with Dr Ali Binazir Dr. Ali Binazir, who describes himself as a happiness engineer, thinks its way off the mark. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. Because there you are futzing about on the internet reading incredibly interesting articles like this one. We were not born by accident given the odds calculated by scientists showing the odds of you being born are at least 1 in 400 trillion IF NOT 1 in 400 quadrillion and most likely 1 in 10.2,640,000. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: one in 400 quadrillion. But lets make it longer. Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 3.409108 square kilometers, or 340,900,000 km2 (131.6 million square miles, for those benighted souls who still cling to user-hostile British measures). Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a far-fetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists., *Illustration of human profile and numbers via Shutterstock, You're one in 400 trillion, or pretty much a miracle. Wowser. They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. If you assume the current population is 1% of the history of humanity, the total number of combinations increases to 1.1 x 10^39. So now we must account for that for 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000th power: Thats a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes of a book the size of mine with zeroes. The answer, if my math is right, (assuming a mass of the moon of 7.34 x 10^22 kg), is about 7.34 x 10^34 years. The Chances You Were Born - Girl to Mom Those who are brave (foolish?) And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Onward to freedom! It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. Are you a miracle? On the probability of being born | Dr. Ali Binazir They each roll the dice and they all come up with. Which one's bigger? They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazirs Article on Probability of Being Born. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. dr ali binazir odds of being born jeffrey dahmer museum milwaukee I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a farfetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." The perfect deal in bridge is that each player receives all the cards in one suit. But its not even remotely comparable with 10^2,685,000. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. Step 2. To complete the analysis: (102,640,000) (1045,000) (40,000,000) = 4 x 102,685,007 102,685,000. was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. dr ali binazir odds of being born. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). So, the combined probability is already only about 1 in 40 million. Dr. Ali Binazir | TheCarolinaCowboy I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. The good news is that the fee is only $10 per class 10-20x cheaper than therapy, and probably more effective. The right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents; otherwise theyd be different people and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. He assumes each person is alert and awake for eight hours a day (this allows for downtime watching reality TV shows when the human brain is entirely inactive). Also follow me on Instagram @RecovHer and visit my RecovHer YouTube Channel for more sober tools and tips. That means that in every step of your lineage, the exact the right sperm had to fertilize the exact right egg such that you would ultimately be created. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. dr ali binazir odds of being born Please pass this post along. The odds of being born are less than the total number of atoms in the known universe! Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. I met a couple of interesting people at a casual meet-up and the topic of the day was a good life. Well then, that would be one in 2150,000 , which is about 1 in 1045,000 a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. However, as the astute who do exist will have observed, extremely improbable events do actually occur. If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. Thats a pretty straightforward calculation. Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). Step 3. This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. Or stalk me (with love.). So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Step 1. They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. Borels Law says such a number means something is impossible, and yet, its not. The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell You are wonderfully and fearfully made, and God has done a marvelous thing. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. An unimaginably long time. By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. June 5. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. I think that was exactly Msgr. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Our babys name creator can help you find a baby at 12 weeks old and unique name for your child. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We were all meant to be here and that we must find our purpose that brought us into creation! He was a funny guy. Ty Webb, Caddyshack, which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. Yet here we are. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. dr ali binazir odds of being born 2022-06-25T04:47:45+00:00 And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. First, let's talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Thats going to take a LONG time. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. Scott and Janice Huse, in their 1997 book The Collapse of Evolution, state that It is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider that any event with a probability of one chance [in] 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. So, thats 28,800 events a day, adding up to a million in 35 days. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. Youre not just one in a million, youre one in a 102,685,000. Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. The chances of your specific sperm meeting your specific egg? But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. Is that an African fly or a European one? One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001." What it Took For You to Exist A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000. But Im not mathy. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 10. Step 3. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. Throw your exploding gender reveal football to festively burst with pink or blue powder. He calculated that an average human could expect to experience such an occurrence once every 35 days. This is similar to the probability of any one star turning super-nova. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: 1 in 1045,000. Part of HuffPost Wellness. Otherwise theyd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Now imagine that each time the fly comes back from the moon it brings with it a speck of moon dust the size of a grain of sand (lets say 1 mg). Dr. Ali Binazir - Something To Prove Not only has He always known us; he has known everything each of us would do, for every one of our days has been written in His book before one of them ever came to be. But now, as long as I'm musing about insane probabilities, I thought I'd delve a little into the odds of us even being born and what that took! The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: one in 400 quadrillion. dr ali binazir odds of being born - c-vineretirement.com The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. As a comparison, the number of atoms in the body of an average male (80kg, 175 lb) is 1027.
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