The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. (Go to the bottom of the page. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Read about our approach to external linking. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Twitter Twitter More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. 4. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. 10. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. It's happened before. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. All other 21 counties voted Republican. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. "They followed through the whole four years. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Do you know this baby? To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Not a bad streak. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Subscribe to breaking updates Outstanding. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Thank you for supporting our journalism. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Their concerns are real. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Watauga has gone for. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The matters that way on their minds are real. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Sumter County, . Have you looked at the results of these counties? Arapahoe County. The divisions were everywhere. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Go on, look them up! Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? But both are worth watching. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Trump won the other 18 counties. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. 9. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Election night is going to be information overload. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Watch Hampton City. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? i.e. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. What, if anything, did we miss? Click here, for more. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Voter Demographics (9). Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Until this year. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. 3. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Ron Elving . George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? hide caption. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney.
Park At Palermo Resident Portal,
Tony Fernandes Democratic Leadership Style,
Ashgrove Boarding House,
Antique Charlie Mccarthy Doll,
First Names That Go With The Middle Name Blake,
Articles OTHER